Work package 3

Regional ocean: downscaling past changes and climate projections

Lead: ULiege, NIVA

WP3 will evaluate and develop downscaling approaches for hindcasting and projecting physical and biogeochemical fields in the regional and coastal ocean, using Regional and Coastal Ocean Models (RCOMs). Model skills will be assessed using metrics and emergent properties based on historical and newly collected observations from WP1. Downscaling model skill analyses and bias correction approaches will coordinate and compare with similar analyses applied to global models in WP2. Hindcast and projection runs will be used to evaluate past/future states and climate change signals on time scales of up to 40 years into the past and up to 80 years into the future, responding to stakeholder needs defined in WP5 and testing Hypothesis 1. Analyses will consider statistical variability as well as mean states and will deliver pressure/response data to WP4. Climate projections will be based on CMIP5/CMIP6 standard scenarios.