Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) widely modulates the global carbon cycle. More specifically, it alters the net uptake of carbon in the tropical ocean. Indeed, over the tropical Pacific less carbon is released by oceans during El Niño, while the opposite is the case for La Niña. Here, the skill of Earth system models (ESMs) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate the observed tropical Pacific CO2 flux variability in response to ENSO is assessed. The temporal amplitude and spatial extent of CO2 flux anomalies vary considerably among models, while the surface temperature signals of El Niño and La Niña phases are generally well represented. Under historical conditions followed by the high-warming Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, about half the ESMs simulate a reversal in ENSO–CO2 flux relationship. This gradual shift, which occurs as early as the first half of the 21st century, is associated with a high CO2-induced increase in the Revelle factor that leads to stronger sensitivity of partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) to changes in surface temperature between ENSO phases. At the same time, uptake of anthropogenic CO2 substantially increases upper-ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations (reducing its vertical gradient in the thermocline) and weakens the ENSO-modulated surface DIC variability. The response of the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship to future climate change is sensitive to the contemporary mean state of the carbonate ion concentration in the tropics. We present an emergent constraint between the simulated contemporary carbonate concentration with the projected cumulated CO2 fluxes. Models that simulate shifts in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship simulate positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations. The figure shows the comparison between the observed and CMIP6 simulated sea surface temperature and CO2 flux anomalies during La Niña and El Niño phases over the contemporary period.
CE2COAST officially joined the global registry of voluntary commitments
CE2COAST has officially joined the global registry of voluntary commitments and multi-stakeholder partnerships made by stakeholders in support of the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and through various UN conferences and thematic action networks, including the UN Ocean Conference, the Small Island Developing States Conference, the UN Sustainable Transport Conference, the Rio+20 Conference, and others.
CE2COAST Winter School in Lisbon, Portugal 13-17 February 2023
The CE2COAST Winter School is now accepting applications from PhD students, postdoctoral and early-stage researchers. It will take place in Lisbon, Portugal 13-17 February 2023. Global change will have significant impacts at regional and local scales on marine and coastal systems and will influence the security and productivity of coastal services. The winter school will provide the opportunity to learn and exchange ideas on the latest approaches in climate change downscaling and determining coastal service thresholds to deliver targeted, relevant, and understood scenarios of coastal change. Topics include: - Observed state, variability, and trends in coastal stressors; - Ocean climate change from Earth System Models; - Regional downscaling of past and future coastal climate change; - Responses of coastal processes and services; - Science and Society: co-design and co-production of knowledge; - Ethics in Science. Lecturers include: - Prof. Richard Bellerby - Dr. Véronique Garçon - Dr. Rachel Cave - Prof. Marilaure Grégoire - Dr. Momme Butenschön - Dr. Kirsten Isensee Priority will be given to applicants from European Institutions. Please send a short CV and application letter stating why you would like to participate to Gabrielle.Hairabedian@niva.no within the deadline Monday, 28th November 2022.
New article on biogeochemical timescales of climate change onset and recovery in the North Atlantic Interior under rapid atmospheric CO2 forcing
Widespread climate change and increasing CO2 emissions have effects that go beyond the ocean surface, impacting ecosystems in the deep ocean. However, the timing and magnitude of these changes, which are essential for ecosystem management, are poorly understood, much less the spatial responses to following climate mitigation actions. We use a numerical model to simulate the Earth system and its major physicochemical, geological, and biological processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere. We forced the model with strong and steady injection followed by strong removal of atmospheric CO2 back to Pre-Industrial levels to understand the responses of seawater properties in the North Atlantic interior (Temperature, pH, Dissolved Oxygen). We find that southern portions of the North Atlantic interior remained up to 50% warmer and inhospitable to calcifying organisms even after returning the atmosphere to the Pre-Industrial state and allowing several centuries for the oceans to readjust. A counterintuitive accumulation of oxygen in the ocean interior is also simulated, despite reduced solubility in warmer seawater temperatures, mainly driven by reduced export and consumption of organic matter at depth. Further studies are needed to better understand the impact of anthropogenic climate change and mitigation actions to safeguard the ecosystems of the deeper parts of our oceans. The figure shows the projected timing of warming emergence (ToD) and recovery (Trec) in the North Atlantic (a) averaged vertically and (b) along the western meridional section. Panels (b) and (e) show percentage warming at different projection periods.
Junior Scientist or Postdoctoral Research Assistant in Marine Biogeochemical Modelling
The CMCC is taking into consideration the possibility to hire a talented, motivated and proactive Junior Scientist/Postdoctoral Research Assistant to work within the Research Unit for Marine Biogeochemistry and Earth System Modelling of the Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation (ODA) Division. This job announcement is a public invitation to express interest for the above mentioned CMCC Position. The location is at the CMCC premises in Bologna, BO, Italy. The primary purpose of this position is to strengthen our in-house modelling system based on the the Biogeochemical Flux Model (http://bfm-community.eu) and its couplings to dynamic ocean models such as NEMO and SHYFEM and our Earth System Model CMCC-ESM2. Some of the current key developments include coastal processes, polar biogeochemical processes including sea-ice biogeochemistry and parametrisation of marine-based negative emission pathways (nature-based and technology based). The candidate is further expected to contribute to the applications of our modelling system and analysis of its simulations in the realms of global biogeochemical cycles, mitigation and adaptation as well as biodiversity and ecosystem services. These activities require a solid base in geoscientific modelling, in-depth knowledge of the scientific state of the art and of the most recent developments in data analysis and statistical methods (e.g. machine learning and artificial intelligence). The desired qualifications are: - PhD in natural sciences with experience in the fields of oceanography, marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems; - High standard of scientific outputs, as proven by your scientific track record (considering a career level in line with the position offered); - Consolidated experience in scientific programming and data analysis, demonstrated skills in FORTRAN and/or python programming as well as parallel computing is of particular advantage; - proficient skills of spoken and written English; - collaborative skills in a highly competitive environment. Belonging to legally protected categories (ex L. 68/99) will constitute a preferential condition. The initial appointment is for 24 months starting from 01/09/2022 at an annual salary ranging from 28000 to 32000 Euros (post-doc) or 33000-40000 Euros (Junior Scientist) comprehensive of benefits, depending on qualification and experience. Deadline: May, 15th, 2022
Publication on Acidification of the Nordic Seas
Due to low calcium carbonate saturation states, and winter mixing that brings anthropogenic carbon to the deep ocean, the Nordic Seas and their cold-water corals are vulnerable to ocean acidification. Here, we present a detailed investigation of the changes in pH and aragonite saturation in the Nordic Seas from preindustrial times to 2100, by using in situ observations, gridded climatological data, and projections for three different future scenarios with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-ME). During the period of regular ocean biogeochemistry observations from 1981–2019, the pH decreased with rates of 2–3 × 10−3 yr−1 in the upper 200 m of the Nordic Seas. In some regions, the pH decrease can be detected down to 2000 m depth. This resulted in a decrease in the aragonite saturation state, which is now close to undersaturation in the depth layer of 1000–2000 m. The model simulations suggest that the pH of the Nordic Seas will decrease at an overall faster rate than the global ocean from the preindustrial era to 2100, bringing the Nordic Seas' pH closer to the global average. In the esmRCP8.5 scenario, the whole water column is projected to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite at the end of the 21st century, thereby endangering all cold-water corals of the Nordic Seas. In the esmRCP4.5 scenario, the deepest cold-water coral reefs are projected to be exposed to undersaturation. Exposure of all cold-water corals to corrosive waters can only be avoided with marginal under the esmRCP2.6 scenario. Over all timescales, the main driver of the pH drop is the increase in dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) caused by the raising anthropogenic CO2, followed by the temperature increase. Thermodynamic salinity effects are of secondary importance. We find substantial changes in total alkalinity (AT) and CT as a result of the salinification, or decreased freshwater content, of the Atlantic water during all time periods, and as a result of an increased freshwater export in polar waters in past and future scenarios. However, the net impact of this decrease (increase) in freshwater content on pH is negligible, as the effects of a concentration (dilution) of CT and AT are canceling. The figure shows the projection changes in surface pH and aragonite saturation state under high-CO2 future scenario in the Nordic Seas. More specifically, the maps of surface water (0 m) pH and ΩAr for the present (1996–2005) and the esmRCP8.5 future (2090–2099), as well as the changes between the periods. The data input of the maps is based on GLODAPv2 gridded climatologies combined with the change from the NorESM1-ME.
A Global Ocean Oxygen Database and Atlas for Assessing and Predicting Deoxygenation and Ocean Health in the Open and Coastal Ocean
In this paper, we outline the need for a coordinated international effort toward the building of an open-access Global Ocean Oxygen Database and ATlas (GO2DAT) complying with the FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable). GO2DAT will combine data from the coastal and open ocean, as measured by the chemical Winkler titration method or by sensors (e.g., optodes, electrodes) from Eulerian and Lagrangian platforms (e.g., ships, moorings, profiling floats, gliders, ships of opportunities, marine mammals, cabled observatories). GO2DAT will further adopt a community-agreed, fully documented metadata format and a consistent quality control (QC) procedure and quality flagging (QF) system. GO2DAT will serve to support the development of advanced data analysis and biogeochemical models for improving our mapping, understanding and forecasting capabilities for ocean O2 changes and deoxygenation trends. It will offer the opportunity to develop quality-controlled data synthesis products with unprecedented spatial (vertical and horizontal) and temporal (sub-seasonal to multi-decadal) resolution. These products will support model assessment, improvement and evaluation as well as the development of climate and ocean health indicators. They will further support the decision-making processes associated with the emerging blue economy, the conservation of marine resources and their associated ecosystem services and the development of management tools required by a diverse community of users (e.g., environmental agencies, aquaculture, and fishing sectors). A better knowledge base of the spatial and temporal variations of marine O2 will improve our understanding of the ocean O2 budget, and allow better quantification of the Earth’s carbon and heat budgets. With the ever-increasing need to protect and sustainably manage ocean services, GO2DAT will allow scientists to fully harness the increasing volumes of O2 data already delivered by the expanding global ocean observing system and enable smooth incorporation of much higher quantities of data from autonomous platforms in the open ocean and coastal areas into comprehensive data products in the years to come. This paper aims at engaging the community (e.g., scientists, data managers, policy makers, service users) toward the development of GO2DAT within the framework of the UN Global Ocean Oxygen Decade (GOOD) program recently endorsed by IOC-UNESCO. A roadmap toward GO2DAT is proposed highlighting the efforts needed (e.g., in terms of human resources). The figure shows the slobal distribution of low O2 areas (i.e., O2 < 62 μmol kg–1) in the coastal and global ocean (from Breitburg et al., 2018). In the coastal area, more than 500 sites have been inventoried with low O2 conditions in the past half century (red dots) while in the open ocean the extent of low O2 waters amounts to several millions km3 (the blue dots refer to conditions at 300 m).
Latest paper on reducing uncertainties of future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean
Improving understanding and projections of excess heat and anthropogenic carbon sink into the ocean is critical to guide the development of climate mitigation policies for meeting ambitious climate targets. Nevertheless, state-of-the-art models show large uncertainties in their projections in key regions such as the Southern Ocean. Through evaluating the water column stratification characteristic in these models, Timothee Bourgeois and colleagues can reduce the uncertainty of future cumulative anthropogenic carbon uptake by up to 53% and excess heat uptake efficiency by 28%. They underline that, for this region, an improved representation of stratification in Earth system models is key to constrain future carbon budgets and anthropogenic climate change projections. Figure caption: Cumulative anthropogenic carbon uptake in (left) weakly-stratified and (right) strongly-stratified models, adapted from Bourgeois et al. (2022).
First joint newsletter from project ROADMAP and CE2COAST
Researcher in marine biogeochemical/ecosystem/physical modelling available at NIVA
The Oceanography section at the Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) invites applications for a Research Scientist position within marine biogeochemical/ecosystem/physical modelling. NIVA is seeking applications from researchers to join the group to use marine modelling to better understand how the coastal and open oceans interact and respond to natural and anthropogenic stressors and drivers. The Oceanography section is composed of 25 research scientists and engineers who employ modelling, observational, and experimental approaches to provide a comprehensive approach for addressing research questions related to oceanography and marine biogeochemistry. The successful candidate will be expected to develop model code, conduct simulations, and perform analysis of results, seek external funding to develop their own research portfolio, as well as contribute to existing Norwegian- and European-funded projects that use models to assess the impacts of climate change in the open ocean as well as fjord and coastal areas. We also expect that the successful candidate will contribute to peer-reviewed publications and enhance collaborations within our diverse section and with other research sections at NIVA including, but not limited to, Marine Biology, Catchment Biogeochemistry, and Water and Society. Closing date is 7th of November 2021.
Ocean Acidification Week 2021
CE2COAST was represented by Project Coordinator Richard Bellerby during Ocean Acidification Week 2021 for the Northeast Atlantic Hub Thursday, 16 September 2021. He presented the project's climate downscaling research and relevant ocean acidification research for science and society. Ocean Acidification Week 2021 was a virtual multi-day forum that highlighted different aspects of ocean acidification research and initiatives from around the world. Find more information about #OAweek2021 on the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON) website: http://www.goa-on.org/webinars/OaWeek2021/webinar.php.
WCRP Climate Research Forum - South America
During Day 2 of the WCRP Climate Research Forum for South America (8-9 September 2021), the fifth session connected to the project’s interest in a round table discussion (https://www.wcrp-climate.org/crf-events/crf-sa/sa-sep-2021). Speakers included: - Salvatore Arico, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO - Emanuelle Di Lorenzo, CEO of Ocean Visions - Ivonne Montes, Geophysical Institute of Peru - Moderated by Ken Takahashi, WCRP Joint Scientific Committee, and Regina Rodrigues, My Climate Risk Lighthouse Activity During this roundtable, panelists exchanged ideas and discussed new activities and opportunities being developed by communities of scientists, programs or institutions in order to foster the connection between research and ocean solutions. The purpose was to: - Provide to the audience an overview of the on-going research programs realm in relation with the ocean, first and foremost those in the frame of the ocean decade, and inform on further opportunities for collaboration; - Elaborate on envisioned knowledge systems we might need to meet the scale and urgency of ocean challenges; - Discuss how WCRP can help reduce differences between the Global North and Global South in terms of training in ocean science, observational capabilities; operational oceanography; computing capabilities. - Identify needs for addressing climate risks and vulnerability in the coastal zones, in particular, how to distill climate information that can be used by the end user to reduce these vulnerabilities. This forum aimed to prepare for another event in 2022 that will specifically target end-users and stakeholders in South America, including those already contacted within the frame of CE2COAST for the Chile Case study. Note that CEAZA, a key collaborator of CE2COAST, was part of the organization for this forum.
Three surveys conducted over the past year to gather data for the project
In the first year of the CE2COAST project, Irish partner NUI Galway (NUIG) has participated in three surveys to gather data for the project, under shiptime grants from the Irish Marine Institute. The first survey took place in August and September 2020 in the Norwegian Sea, in collaboration with scientists investigating past climate change in the Arctic region (PI Dr Audrey Morley, https://www.morpalaeolab.com/), the second survey was carried out in March 2021 as part of the Irish Marine Institute’s annual climate survey on the Irish Shelf & Rockall Trough (PI Dr. Caroline Cusack, https://www.marine.ie/Home/site-area/news-events/press-releases/annual-health-check-atlantic-ocean-climate-survey), and the third survey was completed just last week (early July 2021) in the Celtic Sea as part of a survey targeting Harmful Algal Bloom species (PI Dr. Robin Raine). These surveys collected hydrographic data from CTDs, surface underway data for temperature, salinity and pCO2, and full ocean depth water samples for ocean acidification, nutrients, oxygen and in the case of the Celtic Sea survey, also included organic carbon and phytoplankton samples. The Celtic sea survey also carried out a test of the new HABScope system in Irish waters, as part of a pilot study with NOAA. On the map, the blue dots are Stations where CTD data and water samples were collected.
New paper on best practices in downscaling ocean projections for living marine resource models emerging from an International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) workshop
Efforts to manage living marine resources (LMRs) under climate change need projections of future ocean conditions, yet most global climate models (GCMs) poorly represent critical coastal habitats. GCM utility for LMR applications will increase with higher spatial resolution but obstacles including computational and data storage costs, obstinate regional biases, and formulations prioritizing global robustness over regional skill will persist. Downscaling can help address GCM limitations, but significant improvements are needed to robustly support LMR science and management. We synthesize past ocean downscaling efforts to suggest a protocol to achieve this goal. The protocol emphasizes LMR-driven design to ensure delivery of decision-relevant information. It prioritizes ensembles of downscaled projections spanning the range of ocean futures with durations long enough to capture climate change signals. This demands judicious resolution refinement, with pragmatic consideration for LMR-essential ocean features superseding theoretical investigation. Statistical downscaling can complement dynamical approaches in building these ensembles. Inconsistent use of bias correction indicates a need for objective best practices. Application of the suggested protocol should yield regional ocean projections that, with effective dissemination and translation to decision-relevant analytics, can robustly support LMR science and management under climate change. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab100
First CE2COAST paper published
Offshore Wind Farm Footprint on Organic and Mineral Particle Flux to the Bottom Offshore wind farms (OWFs) are an important source of renewable energy accounting for 2.3% of the European Union's electricity demand. Yet their impact on the environment needs to be assessed. Here, we couple a hydrodynamic (including tides and waves) and sediment transport model with a description of the organic carbon and mineral particle dynamics in the water column and sediments. The model is applied to the Belgian Coastal Zone (BCZ) where OWFs currently occupy 7% of its surface area which is estimated to double in the next 5 years. The impact of OWFs on the environment is represented through the filtration of the water column and fecal pellets production by the blue mussel, the dominant fouling organism. Our model simulations show that the impact of biodeposition on the mud particle sedimentation and on sediment composition is small compared to the fluxes associated with tidal deposition and resuspension and the lateral inputs. In contrast, the total organic carbon (TOC) flux to the sediment is significantly altered inside the OWF perimeters and TOC deposition is increased up to 50% in an area 5 km around the monopiles. Further away, the TOC flux to the bottom decreases with a notable effect up to 30 km away. The major changes are found along the direction of the main residual current and tidal ellipse's major axis. In addition, sub-mesoscale gyres act as retention areas with increased carbon deposition. A future OWF in the BCZ will be located close to gravel beds in a Natura 2000 area, considered as vulnerable habitats and biodiversity hotspots. The different scenarios for this OWF, varying in turbine number and positioning, are compared in terms of impact on the carbon and mineral particle deposition flux in the BCZ and, particularly, to these gravel beds. The scenarios show that the number of turbines has only a slight impact on the TOC deposition flux, unlike their positioning that significantly alters the TOC flux to the gravel beds. The TOC deposition flux exceeds 50%, when the turbines are placed next to the gravel beds; while a limited increase is simulated, when the turbines are located the farthest possible from them. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.631799
CE2COAST is now a partner in the Global Ocean Oxygen Decade (GOOD) under the Global Ocean Oxygen Network (GO2NE)
Oxygen in the ocean supports the largest ecosystems on the planet. However, the ocean is at risk, it is losing oxygen, termed ocean deoxygenation, at a rapid rate. The decrease of ocean oxygen is primarily due to global warming by greenhouse gas emissions, and pollution by nutrients and organic wastes particularly in coastal waters. The Decade Programme will raise global awareness about ocean deoxygenation, provide knowledge for action and develop mitigation and adaptation measures through local, regional and global efforts, including intensified monitoring, transdisciplinary research, bi-directional knowledge transfer among stakeholders and scientists, innovative outreach and ocean education and literacy. The high-level objective of the Decade Programme is to provide data and knowledge to enable society, stakeholders, and scientists to co-design and develop measures that can mitigate the drivers and impacts of ocean deoxygenation and provide appropriate adaptation measures where mitigation is not possible. Developing mitigation of and/or adaptation approaches to deoxygenation are of paramount importance for ensuring the provision of ecosystem services, addressing threats to the climate system and minimizing the impact of ocean deoxygenation on the ocean economy.
2-year postdoctoral fellowship position available
A 2-year postdoctoral fellowship position (with a possibility for extension) is available in the research topic of multi-ESMs process-based assessment and benchmark for regional downscaling at the biogeochemistry group of NORCE Climate and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research. The Bjerknes Centre is the largest climate research centre in the Scandinavian countries and among the leading centres in Europe. We are seeking an enthusiastic and highly motivated climate scientist to work in the newly funded project CE2COAST (Downscaling Climate and Ocean Change to Services). The project, involves international and interdisciplinary researchers, aims to deliver observation-driven synthesis of statistical and dynamical downscaling methodology to provide improved process resolution and system representations tailored to regional/coastal domains and their associated pressures/services. Closing date is 31st of January 2021.
New booklet: Next Generation Climate for Oceans – Research projects 2020-2023
CE2COAST included in the information booklet produced from the JPI Oceans and JPI Climate joint kick-off meeting “Next Generation Climate for Oceans – Research projects 2020-2023”. The booklet provides a brief overview of the scope and objectives of each project focusing on interactions between oceans and climate by analysing model simulations and observational data, as well as details on the respective partner consortia.