Earth system models at regional scales

This WP coordinates the provision of benchmarked single and ensemble ESM model simulations from the CMIP archive that will be dynamically downscaled in WP3. We will evaluate ESM skill against data and emergent products from WP1. We will elucidate large scale dynamical understanding of physics and biogeochemistry in the CE2COAST regions of study and deliver basin scale analyses of trends, variability, governing mechanisms, and (basic) thresholds of climate and ecological pressures (e.g., temperature, nutrients, pH, oxygen, and surface primary production). We will quantify the internal variability of the ESM and propagation of uncertainties into projections (cf. Payne et al., 2016). This includes analysis of long-term (decadal to centennial) simulations forced continuously with preindustrial forcing and estimation of natural temporal variability (associated to the non-linear dynamics of the system) in each basin of interest. Time of emergence analysis will be performed and compared with similar dynamically-downscaled analyses in WP3. Systematic bias across multiple ESMs that leads to spread in projections will be identified through emergent constraint analysis.